IPO 2026

A few patterns worth noting across the three companies. In the base case, SpaceX and OpenAI converge at roughly $2.0 trillion by 2030, but they arrive there through very different paths: SpaceX with $8 billion in current EBITDA and proven profitability, OpenAI burning $14 billion in 2026 and betting on $200+ billion revenue by decade's end. Anthropic starts lowest at $450 billion but has the steepest growth trajectory and the strongest enterprise fundamentals, reaching $1.7 trillion by 2030 in the base case.
 

The bull case is where the divergence gets dramatic. OpenAI's potential ceiling ($3.75 trillion) is the highest of the three because its consumer reach (900 million weekly users) gives it the largest addressable market if AI agents and enterprise products scale as projected. SpaceX's bull case ($3.0 trillion) is anchored by Starship's commercial potential and Starlink scaling to 20+ million subscribers. Anthropic's bull case ($2.5 trillion) is the most "grounded" because it's most tightly tied to measurable enterprise revenue metrics rather than narrative optionality.
 

The bear case is where the risk profiles diverge most. SpaceX's floor ($1.3 trillion) is the highest because it already generates cash. OpenAI's floor ($0.8 trillion, below IPO price) reflects the real possibility that $14 billion annual losses and market share erosion could compress multiples below the entry valuation. Anthropic's floor ($0.85 trillion) is actually above its IPO valuation in the bear case, reflecting the market's likely willingness to pay a premium for its superior business quality metrics even in a downturn.